How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.